Columbus (WCMH) – Now that we are officially 2 months from the start of Winter (Dec 21, 544am) its time to tweak the snowfall forecast I made in August. Also, the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA has released their Winter forecast Thursday.(**Spoiler Alert: if you do not care to know the background or how I came to my forecast, you just want the numbers, scroll down… and enjoy!!!)
If you remember my August forecast for this Winter…
I looked back at historical data for La Nina seasons as part of my forecast. At that time, the La Nina forecast was about a 55-60% chance. That chance is now upped to 70% heading through fall, and still has about a 55% chance of persisting through the Winter of 2016-17.
Again, this is going to be a “weak” La Nina… so here is a rundown of the 11 “weak” La Nina Winter seasons from 1950-2016:Normally, Columbus sees just under 27″ of snowfall for the season:
Our 30 year running average is at 26.7″, below is the monthly breakdown.
- Oct. 0.2″
- Nov. 0.9″
- Dec. 5.0″
- Jan. 9.2″
- Feb. 6.1″
- Mar. 4.2″
- Apr. 1.1″
The average over the 11 “weak” La Nina seasons was almost 5″ higher than our normal (26.7″)Few other notes:
- NOAA predicts a cool and wetter Winter (Dec-Feb) for the north.
- NOAA notes that La Nina Winters typically provide more snow in the Great Lakes region
- November’s outlook does look to be warmer than normal for Ohio
- December’s outlook should be near normal on temps and precipitation
- January could end up being near normal temps, and a bit wetter than normal
- February should be a bit wetter than normal
What this means for the forecast:
- November, little to no measurable snowfall
- December will see snowfall unlike the anomaly of last year, near normal snowfall
- January will be slightly above normal for snow, which goes 1-2″ higher than normal
- February will be above normal for snowfall
- March will be near normal for snowfall in the first half of the month
Here is my month by month forecast for snowfall:
Adding those totals up, I have made a minor adjustment to the snowfall forecast I made in August:
Back in August, I forecast 34″ of snowfall for this Winter…. I have downgraded that number 🙂
Remember, our last 4 Winter snowfall totals have been
- 2015-16: 17.1″
- 2014-15: 33.4″
- 2013-14: 56.4″
- 2012-13: 41.2″
Tell me what you think of my forecast! If you have any questions about this Winter weather, snowfall, cold weather, or any other type of weather, email me at dmazza@wcmh.com
-Dave