Follow this link for live updates on Saturday’s championship games and how they could shift Ohio State’s seeding in the final playoff bracket.
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — The first 12-team College Football Playoff bracket will be set in days, but first, over a dozen teams in the postseason picture have to get through the conference championship games.
The Buckeyes will not be playing for the Big Ten championship on Saturday, marking the fourth straight season they cannot improve their resume before the selection show. The 12-team format keeps Ohio State safe, but six conference title games could impact its seeding, which currently sits at No. 8.
The format guarantees five conference winners a playoff spot, with the best four earning byes into the quarterfinals. Here is a guide on each game and what scenarios are in play.
Friday, 8 p.m.: No. 20 UNLV (10-2) vs. No. 10 Boise State (11-1)
Betting Odds: Boise State (-4), Total (58)
Friday night used to be the slot for the Pac-12 title game. With the conference’s near disbandment, it now belongs to the Mountain West and features two teams chasing a playoff spot.
No. 10 Boise State will host No. 20 UNLV on its blue field at Albertsons Stadium in a likely win-and-in game. The Broncos have been ahead of the pack in the chase for the Group of Six playoff spot behind the historic running of Ashton Jeanty, who enters the game with the fifth-most rushing yards in an FBS season.
UNLV seeks revenge after losing to Boise State 29-24 on Oct. 25 in Las Vegas. The Rebels have the sixth top scoring offense and could secure a playoff spot with the upset. Boise State will book a quarterfinal spot at the Fiesta Bowl with a victory.
- UNLV stakes: Win and possibly in; lose and out
- Boise State stakes: Win and clinch bye; lose and possibly out
Friday, 8 p.m.: Tulane (9-3) vs. No. 24 Army (10-1)
Betting Odds: Tulane (-6), Total (45 1/2)
The American Athletic Championship game will be at West Point, New York, as No. 24 Army hosts Tulane. In their first season in the AAC, the Black Knights have been stunning behind an elite defense and a signature triple-option offense.
Army’s lone loss is to No. 4 Notre Dame 49-14 in New York, and an AAC title win over Tulane might give it a chance to become the first military academy to make the playoff. The Black Knights’ path only opens up if UNLV upsets Boise State.
The Green Wave are a worthy opponent, and if it weren’t for a Thanksgiving Day loss to Memphis, Tulane would have been in the playoff conversation.
- Army stakes: Win and possibly in; lose and out
Saturday, noon: No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) vs. No. 15 Arizona State (10-2)
Betting Odds: Arizona State (-2), Total (51)
The first of the Power Four finals will be in Arlington, Texas, with Iowa State and Arizona State meeting for the Big 12’s only playoff spot.
This season started with Utah as the conference favorite, but things changed quickly with Iowa State assuming the mantle in late September. The Cyclones squeezed into the final despite a late surge from Colorado and the late-season meltdown of BYU.
The Sun Devils got into the mix last week and secured a spot with a 49-7 win over Arizona. A player to watch will be running back Cam Skattebo, the eighth leading rusher in college football.
This is the only conference title game where the winner is guaranteed a playoff spot and the loser is out entirely. Whether the winner gets a bye will be the question. That possibility increases if Boise State loses or SMU loses the ACC title game.
- Iowa State stakes: Win and in; lose and out
- Arizona State stakes: Win and in; lose and out
Saturday, 4 p.m.: No. 5 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 2 Texas (11-1)
Betting Odds: Texas (-2 1/2), Total (49 1/2)
The Southeastern Conference final will be a rematch between two of the best teams in the nation. No. 5 Georgia and No. 2 Texas will play as both seem safely in the playoff, even with a loss.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers, who transferred from Ohio State, has been the focal point of the offense and will lead Texas to a second straight playoff appearance. Texas suffered its only loss Oct. 19 at home 30-15 to Georgia.
The Bulldogs come into the game considered the best two-loss team in the country, losing to Alabama and Mississippi on the road. Georgia’s high strength of schedule is a plus on its resume in the committee’s eyes and will likely keep them in the field.
The winner in Atlanta will likely either be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the playoff and play in the Sugar Bowl. Texas would play a first-round game at home if it loses, and Georgia looks likely to travel for a first-round game if it loses. A Georgia loss also would help Ohio State improve its seeding.
- Georgia stakes: Win and clinch bye; lose and possible at-large spot
- Texas stakes: Win and clinch bye; lose and clinch at-large spot
Saturday, 8 p.m.: No. 17 Clemson (9-3) vs. No. 8 SMU (11-1)
Betting Odds: SMU (-2 1/2), Total (57)
The Atlantic Coast Conference title game in Charlotte, North Carolina, pits an ACC powerhouse against a newcomer. No. 17 Clemson and No. 8 SMU meet in one of the unlikeliest ACC finals in recent memory.
SMU has been a force all season in its maiden ACC season. The Mustangs’ top-five offense and top-20 defense have punished opponents and put them in position to earn a bye into the Peach Bowl. Many thought Miami would make the game, but a loss to Syracuse opened the door for Clemson.
Clemson is the only three-loss team playing in a Power Four championship game and could book a postseason spot with an upset. A win might not guarantee it a bye, and one of the great mysteries this weekend is if SMU gets in with a loss. Of all the possible results this weekend, a Clemson win would create the most chaos.
- Clemson stakes: Win and in; lose and out
- SMU stakes: Win and clinch bye; lose and possibly out
Saturday, 8 p.m.: No. 3 Penn State (11-1) vs. No. 1 Oregon (12-0)
Betting Odds: Oregon (-3 1/2), Total (49 1/2)
Instead of an Ohio State-Oregon rematch, Indianapolis will have an Oregon-Penn State meeting for the Big Ten championship game. The Ducks are the only unbeaten team left in college football behind the incredible play of quarterback and Big Ten offensive player of the year Dillon Gabriel.
In their first season in the Big Ten, the Ducks have come in and beaten conference mainstays like Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois. They have a chance to beat another one in Penn State, which finds itself in the game after Michigan’s 13-10 upset of Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions entered this season with two hurdles to overcome: Ohio State and the playoff. Although they could not get past the Buckeyes in the regular season, they should earn their first playoff spot no matter the result of this game. Oregon looks set to earn the No. 1 seed with a win or the No. 5 seed with a loss. Penn State could jump to the one-seed with a win and a Texas loss to Georgia.
- Penn State stakes: Win and clinch bye; lose and clinch at-large spot
- Oregon stakes: Win and clinch bye; lose and clinch at-large spot
Other teams in contention
- No. 4 Notre Dame (11-1): The Fighting Irish will likely play a first-round game at home and will come in riding a 10-game winning streak. Notre Dame has never won a playoff game.
- No. 6 Ohio State (10-2): Even with a loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes are safely in and likely will play a first-round game at home. Their seeding could improve if Penn State or Georgia loses.
- No. 7 Tennessee (10-2): The Volunteers could be a dark horse to make a postseason run and are the likeliest opponent for the Buckeyes.
- No. 9 Indiana (11-1): Heading into the season, Indiana was picked to finish second-to-last in the Big Ten. Instead, it defied expectations and appear set to play in the first round of the playoff.
- No. 11 Alabama (9-3): Despite having three losses, the Crimson Tide seem destined to still compete for a national title. A game in the Midwest in sub-freezing temperatures is in the cards.
- No. 12 Miami (10-2): The Hurricanes looked primed to win the ACC and book a bye. Instead, they hope for a miracle to maybe get above Alabama and into the bracket.
- No. 13 Mississippi (9-3): Coach Lane Kiffin’s team had some amazing wins (Georgia, South Carolina) and some terrible losses (Kentucky, Florida). Ole Miss needs help to sneak into the field.
- No. 14 South Carolina (9-3): The Gamecocks’ case could improve if Clemson wins the ACC. Riding a six-game winning steak, can South Carolina make the field?
Playoff resumes
Projected bracket if all favorites win
Winners: Boise State, Tulane, Arizona State, Texas, SMU, Oregon
Projected bracket if all underdogs win
Winners: UNLV, Army, Iowa State, Georgia, Clemson, Penn State
