The season is almost halfway through, but the NFL playoff races are starting to take shape.
In Week 8, there are a host of games that could have a wide-ranging impact on the playoff picture. One of those matchups is happening in Baltimore, where the one-win Ravens are getting Lamar Jackson back after he missed two games with a hamstring injury. Baltimore will take on the Bears, who are riding a four-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Panthers and Bills will meet in a battle of teams trending in opposite directions. Carolina is over .500 after beating the Dolphins, Cowboys and Jets in consecutive weeks, while the Bills hope to end a two-game losing streak coming off the bye.
In the late window, the Broncos and Cowboys will meet in a battle between a staunch defense and a high-flying offense. All this comes before Sunday night, when Aaron Rodgers takes on the Packers at Acrisure Stadium, playing against Green Bay for the first time since leaving in 2022.
But we start with the Bears and Ravens, in an absolute must-win for Baltimore.
Bears (4–2) at Ravens (1–5)
Spread: Baltimore -6.5
Key matchup: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson vs. Chicago’s run defense
Key stat: The Bears are allowing 5.3 yards per carry, 31st in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If Baltimore has any chance of getting to the playoffs, it starts by snapping its four-game losing streak and beating the Bears at home.
Coming off their bye, the Ravens are likely getting Jackson back for the first time since Week 4. Coach John Harbaugh should use Jackson’s legs, provided his hamstring is fully healed after a month of rehabbing.
Chicago has struggled against the run, ranking 31st in yards per carry against (5.3) and 28th in rushing yards permitted per game (137.7). Despite all their issues this season, the Ravens are second in YPC at 5.3, and that’s without Jackson for three games. Henry also seemed to find his groove after four games with a combined 148 rushing yards, going for 122 yards on 24 carries against the Rams.
If the Bears can’t stop the rush, expect Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken to stay on the ground.
Verderame’s verdict: Ravens 30, Bears 21
Bills (4–2) at Panthers (4–3)
Spread: Buffalo -7
Key matchup: Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard vs. the Bills’ run defense
Key stat: The Bills are permitting 5.8 yards per carry, worst in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Panthers are going to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender, it’ll be with Dowdle and Hubbard pounding the rock.
In Carolina’s four wins this season, it has averaged 5.0 yards per carry. In the three defeats, a full yard less at 4.0. With Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young, who is out with a high ankle sprain, the Panthers are trying to give both Dalton and their seventh-ranked defense the best chance to succeed against a Bills team that ranks third in yardage (378.3) and fourth in points per game (27.8).
For Buffalo, the key is getting Carolina out of its run game by scoring early and often. The Bills present a unique challenge with Josh Allen and James Cook in the backfield. If Buffalo can’t get ahead by a few scores, the Panthers can run consistently against the worst run defense in the league by YPC (5.8), allowing Carolina to both shorten the game and keep Allen on the sideline.
Verderame’s verdict: Bills 30, Panthers 24
49ers (5–2) at Texans (2–4)
Spread: Houston -1.5
Key matchup: Christian McCaffrey vs. Houston’s linebackers
Key stat: McCaffrey has 981 total yards, most in the league
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The 49ers have been one of the league’s best stories. They’re 5–2 despite being without Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk, Demarcus Robinson and George Kittle for either all or some of the season.
The one constant? McCaffrey leads the NFL with 981 offensive yards. The running back has been absurdly good as a pass catcher as well, ranking eighth in the league with 516 yards. On Sunday, he’ll be facing an athletic group of Houston linebackers led by Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair.
In six games this year, the Texans have allowed 18 receptions for 109 yards to running backs. Houston would be thrilled to permit that average to McCaffrey (three catches for 18 yards) but would probably settle for a number three times that high.
If McCaffrey can’t get loose, San Francisco will need to rely on Kendrick Bourne, Pearsall and the recently activated Kittle to win their matchups.
Verderame’s verdict: 49ers 17, Texans 9
Cowboys (3-3-1) at Broncos (5–2)
Spread: Denver -3
Key matchup: The Broncos’ pass rush vs. the Cowboys’ offensive line
Key stat: Denver has recorded sacks on 13.3% of dropbacks, the best in the league.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The NFL’s best offense against the league’s most vaunted defense. A match made for football fans.
Dallas leads the NFL with 390.6 yards per game while averaging an NFC-leading 31.7 points per game. Dak Prescott has been excellent, throwing for 1,881 yards and 16 touchdowns against only three interceptions while being sacked just eight times. However, he’s facing a Broncos defense with 34 sacks, on pace to shatter the 1984 Bears record of 72.
Up front, the Cowboys have survived various injuries to surrender sacks on 2.9% of dropbacks, second only to the Colts. Of quarterbacks with at least five starts, Prescott has been sacked the second-fewest. If that trend continues on Sunday, the Broncos could be in trouble. Against Indianapolis in Week 2, Denver sacked Daniel Jones only once and watched him throw for 316 yards (9.3 YPA) and a touchdown in a 29–28 win.
Still, the Broncos are unbeaten at home, averaging 4.3 sacks per game with the crowd noise providing an advantage. It won’t be easy for Dallas to keep Prescott clean, even with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to target—a duo that has combined for 939 yards and seven touchdowns.
Verderame’s verdict: Cowboys 27, Broncos 23
Packers (4–1–1) at Steelers (4–2)
Spread: Green Bay -3
Key matchup: Packers’ pass attack vs. Steelers’ secondary
Key stat: Pittsburgh ranks 31st in pass defense, allowing 258.8 yards per game.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
This game is going to be billed as the Rodgers revenge tour against the Packers, but the game will be decided when he’s standing on the sideline.
Green Bay doesn’t have a voluminous passing game, ranking 12th with 225.8 yards per game. However, Jordan Love is directing one of the league’s most efficient attacks, with the Packers fourth in YPA (8.2) and tied for third with 11.8 yards per completion. Additionally, Green Bay has five players getting at least 20 targets this season and eclipsing 130 yards.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has struggled to stop the pass. The Steelers have been outgained in total yardage in five of their six contests. Last Thursday, the secondary was lit up for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a 33–31 loss to Joe Flacco and the previously two-win Bengals.
If Pittsburgh can’t contain Love, Rodgers will watch his first game against the Packers turn into a showcase for his protégé on national television.
Verderame's verdict: Packers 26, Steelers 21
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups, Predictions for the Cowboys-Broncos Showdown and More.