The Blue Jays are one game away from winning the 2025 World Series after beating the Dodgers in Game 5 on Wednesday night.
Following a brutal loss in Game 3's marathon thriller, Toronto quickly rebounded with a win in Game 4 to even up the series at two games apiece. Heading into Game 5, each team knew that the result could heavily tip the scales in one side's favor—as Dodgers minority owner Magic Johnson so astutely put it before first pitch.
On Wednesday, the Blue Jays played spoiler for the second straight time during the Dodgers' homestand with rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage's historic start and Toronto's big-time bats helping to secure a pivotal 6-1 win, and now they stand on the precipice of their first World Series title since 1993. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are teetering on the brink of elimination, their first taste of do-or-die baseball since the 2024 NLDS.
If history is any indication, the odds are very much in Toronto's favor.
In a best-of-seven series tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has won the series 46 of 68 times (67.6%), according to MLB's Sarah Langs.
In series which have a 2-3-2 format (like this one), teams who take a 3-2 lead by winning Game 5 on the road before returning home for Game 6 and 7 have gone on to to win the series 20 of 27 times (74.1%).
The Last Time Winner of Game 5 Clinched the World Series
The last two World Series were decided in five games, so they don't apply in this situation. In the 2022 Fall Classic between the Astros and Phillies, with the series tied 2-2, the Astros took Game 5 in Philadelphia before going on to clinch the title two days later at home in Game 6's 4-1 win.
With Game 6 at Rogers Centre on Friday night, the Blue Jays own the clear advantage and will also get to hear their home fans cheering them on in the same building they won their repeat championship in '93. Facing a Dodgers team that doesn't seem to have any answers at the plate this series, the Blue Jays will have sole control of their destiny.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Often Teams Who Take Game 5 Go on to Win World Series.