College Football Playoff Projection After Week 8: Alabama Surging, Notre Dame Back in the Mix

We are just two weeks away from the College Football Playoff selection committee sequestering into a room and trying to make sense of the sport.

After what we saw in Week 8, good luck to all of them.

The postseason picture seemed to shift from TV window to TV window over the past weekend, taking some teams out of the running for quarterfinal byes to others out of the bracket entirely.

Some took advantage of all this chaos, including Notre Dame getting past its toughest test of the season against USC and Georgia Tech doing the same in its ACC slate by beating Duke.

Factoring in all of the results so far, forecasting the rest of the season out and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.

College Football Playoff Projected Rankings After Week 8

Ohio State
Alabama
Indiana
Georgia
Texas A&M
Miami
Oregon
Georgia Tech
Notre Dame
Mississippi
Texas Tech
South Florida

First Round

No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
No. 10 Mississippi at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Georgia Tech

Quarterfinals

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia vs. winner of No. 12 South Florida–No. 5 Texas A&M
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. winner of No. 11 Texas Tech–No. 6 Miami
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Alabama vs. winner of No. 10 Mississippi–No. 7 Oregon
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Notre Dame–No. 8 Georgia Tech

No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M

Raise your hand if you had the Aggies as the last SEC left unbeaten at this point in the season. Nobody? O.K., no worries. Mike Elko’s crew has two more conference road games against ranked opponents in the next two weeks, which offer up the opportunity to secure some additional Top 25 wins to complement the win over Notre Dame that continues to look great on the résumé.

No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami

The Red Raiders will get some grace from the committee for losing on the road against the league favorite without their starting quarterback. At full strength they still look like the class of the Big 12, but that game against Arizona State was extra costly because it denied the team another quality win and could really impact their seeding. As for the Hurricanes, it wasn’t the end of the world to take their first loss, but it could be a factor in the various ACC tiebreakers down the road.

No. 10 Mississippi at No. 7 Oregon

The committee will probably be more impressed with what the Rebels did on the road for three quarters between the hedges than anything the team has done up to that point on Saturday against Georgia. It’s not quite smooth sailing if they can get past Oklahoma in Week 9, but the schedule definitely provides a pathway to Lane Kiffin taking his hot yoga to the CFP.

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Georgia Tech

Irish fans can probably look forward to another CFP appearance after getting past USC in rainy conditions in South Bend, but they should also keep an eye on the back-to-back against Navy and at Pitt as potential trap games. The thing about this year’s potential return to the playoff is that Notre Dame might actually be better between the lines than the group that made it to the title game in 2024.

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia

Kirby Smart’s team is still a bit flawed on defense, but there’s still plenty of talent on the roster and the Bulldogs know how to win games when it gets down to crunch time. That’s a great asset to have almost as much as having one of the best résumés in the country by the end of the season, which could allow for a loss in Atlanta yet still keep Georgia on track for a first-round bye.

Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Indiana

Imagine telling somebody a few weeks ago that UCLA might be the Hoosiers’ best win in the second half of the season. That might be the case as Indiana has a few more weeks of practice to prepare for Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Alabama

With each passing week, it sure looks like Florida State’s 31–17 upset of the Tide will go down as the most puzzling result of the season—similar to Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois the year prior. It might not matter if they can keep destroying opponents like they did Tennessee.

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State

It’s strange to think that the reigning national champion has been largely out of sight and out of mind nationally, but that just speaks to their routine dominance so far in 2025. The defense is verging on historic and we’re approaching the point where it’s going to be easy to claim that this year’s Buckeyes are actually better than the group which lost twice in the regular season on their way to the championship.

Top 25 After Week 8

While predicting how the College Football Playoff will wind up is an exercise in projecting out wins and losses throughout the season, my own Top 25 is much more of a week-to-week task focused on the here and now. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?