I’m sure no one had Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence and a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking the four division leaders in the AFC heading into the final four games of the regular season. And, somehow, the Colts, who will now rely on a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, are still in better shape than the Chiefs and Ravens, two former contenders with 6–7 records.
We spent all offseason talking up the four elite signal-callers in the AFC and ignored the possibility of a few surprises emerging in the conference. Now, there’s a real chance that Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson don’t make the playoffs. That doesn’t appear likely for Josh Allen, who can be regarded as the new king of quarterbacks if he’s able to guide the Bills to the Super Bowl.
Let’s take a look at what could be at stake for Allen and the Bills in the next two months. Don’t worry, we won’t ignore the surprise teams in the AFC—Lawrence and the Jaguars have our attention.
Let’s get to the latest NFL Fact or Fiction.
Allen can overtake Mahomes as top QB with Super Bowl LX title
Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL, but there’s now a golden opportunity for Allen to surpass him atop the pecking order.
I’m sure many will disagree with me on Mahomes as the best, solely because there’s annoyance with the constant praising of the two-time MVP, which is warranted for a quarterback with three Super Bowl rings and seven consecutive trips to the AFC title game.
And, yes, that streak will likely end this season. However, all those past accolades, wins and clutch moments won’t be forgotten because of one lost season in Kansas City. I’m sure many NFL coaches, executives and players would agree with me that Mahomes would still go first in an all-quarterback draft.
Mahomes, however, has struggled this season, and you could argue that his offense has relied heavily on Steve Spagnuolo’s stellar defense for a few years now. On the other hand, Mahomes has delivered clutch playoff performances, guiding his team to three consecutive Super Bowls. Plus, Mahomes has rarely missed games in his illustrious career, and turned 30 in September, with many prime years ahead.
Obviously, Mahomes hasn’t played up to his lofty expectations, but it hasn’t been the best season for star quarterbacks in general. Allen, who lacks playoff wins, has struggled at times, too, with disastrous performances against Miami and Houston. In Allen’s defense, the Texans’ defense has a knack for frustrating elite QBs, including Mahomes on Sunday night.
Allen could finally surpass Mahomes in the quarterback rankings by leading the Bills to their first Super Bowl title on Feb. 8 in Santa Clara. Then again, Allen likely wouldn’t get full credit for guiding Buffalo to a Lombardi Trophy without avenging the four postseason losses against Kansas City. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Chiefs backing into the postseason (I’m sure the Mahomes haters really hate me now), only to see whether Allen can finally get over the red and gold wall in January.
Take a look at the other star quarterbacks across the league. Jackson either lost his powers, or his hamstring injury is much worse than the Ravens have let on. And Jackson has as many playoff failures as Allen. Burrow has actually beaten the Chiefs in the postseason and played in a Super Bowl. He’s special when available. But that’s the problem. He hasn’t been available much in recent years, and his team is headed for a third consecutive season without a playoff appearance.
Currently, Matthew Stafford is playing the position the best among all quarterbacks. He has a Super Bowl ring and is highly reliable when it matters most. Honestly, I wouldn’t argue much if NFL executives agreed that they would rather take Stafford over Mahomes, but one is 37 with an extensive injury history, and the other is in the midst of his prime.
Unless Allen or Stafford wins it all in February, expect Mahomes to be atop every anonymous QB poll, the ones you usually see in the summer to fill space during the quiet period of the NFL offseason.
Manzano’s view: Fact
Cowboys should still re-sign George Pickens despite Lions performance
The Cowboys got a glimpse of why it might not be a good idea to pay two wide receivers more than $30 million per year during their ugly 44–30 loss against the Lions last week.
Dallas didn’t need a reminder of all the losing that has taken place in Cincinnati, despite having two star receivers who are well compensated. The Cowboys saw firsthand, in their biggest game of the season, that having two talented wide receivers didn’t do them any favors in Detroit against a better offense that’s more well-rounded.
Yes, CeeDee Lamb was ruled out with a concussion, but he played in the first half while the Cowboys struggled to keep pace with the high-scoring Lions, who jumped to a 20–9 halftime advantage. As for the biggest concern, Pickens failed to step up when Lamb left the field, reminding the football public of why the Steelers traded him to the Cowboys for a few middle-round draft picks. The headaches might not be worth the price, and more importantly, investing in two wide receivers is often not a wise decision.
The Steelers decided to pay DK Metcalf, and not Pickens. The Seahawks picked Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Metcalf and will likely hand the former a very lucrative contract in the offseason.
The Cowboys are already paying Lamb $35 million per season. Perhaps Dallas should do what Detroit did to lock up Amon-Ra St. Brown, who’s making $30 million per year, and Jameson Williams, who took somewhat of a hometown discount with an extension that averages $26.6 million per year. Williams, like Pickens, has a history of off-the-field issues, but the two sides met in the middle to continue building on the partnership.
Unless Pickens takes a similar discount, maybe the Cowboys should let a different team pay Pickens, one that hasn’t already spent a ton of money to one wide receiver. Dallas still needs plenty of help on defense, even with the addition of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline.
Manzano’s view: Fiction
Trevor Lawrence has shown consistency as a franchise quarterback
Lawrence has drastically improved since his disastrous Week 12 outing against the Cardinals, guiding the Jaguars to back-to-back divisional wins against the Titans and Colts to take control of the AFC South.
After the concerning performance, I wrote that the team wouldn’t be quick to give up on Lawrence, primarily because he hasn’t had much time to work with first-year coach Liam Coen. He’s been using a wristband on the field to get acclimated to the new playbook, and it seems to have helped in the past two weeks.
Lawrence’s stats don’t exactly pop out, but he’s been efficient and taken advantage of a productive ground game, pushing the ball at times to Parker Washington and newcomer Jakobi Meyers. Even Brian Thomas Jr., who’s had a second-year slump, made an impact in Jacksonville’s signature victory over the Colts last week.
I get that it’s the NFL and results are required immediately, but it was silly that Coen had to answer questions about Thomas possibly being on the trading block earlier this season. Thomas, the 2024 first-round pick, also needed time to adjust to a new offensive scheme.
We should start talking about Coen more as a Coach of the Year candidate, given that he has the Jaguars at 9–4 in Year 1 of his tenure. As we head into the final stretch run of the regular season, Jacksonville is starting to figure it out and could be dangerous in the postseason.
The Jaguars have beaten the 49ers, Chiefs, Chargers, Colts, and should have swept the surging Texans, but they had a 19-point collapse in the second meeting. And it really says a lot that Jacksonville scored 29 points on Houston’s elite defense in Week 10.
Again, if the Lawrence–Coen connection continues to improve, the Jaguars will be a problem in January.
Manzano’s view: Fact
The NFL will be fine with more domed stadiums in the future
No, no, no, it will not be fine. Please start building more outdoor stadiums.
I know the NFL in reality will move forward just fine when it inevitably has most of its teams playing indoors, but let me complain for a bit because it’s a shame that snow games will be scarce in the near future.
It was awesome watching Allen and Burrow battle in an epic high-scoring snow game last week. It sucks as a football fan who enjoys watching weather elements be a factor, but at least Buffalo fans won’t be asked to shovel snow off their seats before game days, thanks to the new stadium’s heated roof.
Manzano’s view: Fiction
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Josh Allen Is Poised to Surpass Patrick Mahomes As League's Top QB.