The 2025–26 NBA season tips off Tuesday as the Thunder receive their rings and face the Rockets. It’s set up to be a fascinating season.
There are multiple living legends looking to make one final push for a title, led by Kevin Durant in Houston and Stephen Curry with the Warriors. LeBron James’s stubborn war against Father Time rages on. The Eastern Conference is a wasteland devastated by Achilles injuries, affording several teams golden opportunities to make deep playoff runs. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s standing in Milwaukee is as shaky as it has ever been. The Thunder loom as strong favorites to repeat and potentially even set a record for regular-season wins; they look that peerless after winning the 2025 title. Legacies will be altered and rosters blown up depending on how the season unfolds.
It’s going to be a lot of fun.
For now, though, taking stock of the big questions and narratives is a great way to lay out the landscape. Here are seven storylines that will help shape the upcoming NBA season.
How high can Victor Wembanyama fly?
There is much anticipation surrounding Wembanyama’s third NBA season. So much so that it can be hard to identify what a “successful” season for Wemby and the Spurs would look like amid the fog of expectations. From the broadest viewpoint, just staying on the court would probably qualify. Wembanyama missed the second half of last season due to deep vein thrombosis and injuries are the top threat to the 7' 5" star’s career. San Antonio would be content to see the franchise cornerstone play over 30 minutes a night for most of the year without anything more serious than the standard bumps and bruises.
But he was really good last year. The frightening nature of his blood clot issue overshadowed how absurd a 24/11 stat line with four blocks a night is for a second-year player. Couple that with the show of force Wembanyama put on during the preseason and it becomes difficult to keep expectations grounded. With just a few minor improvements in regard to his shot selection and three-point accuracy, the young center would be a two-way force the NBA hasn’t seen in a very long time, if ever. What if he makes a true third-year jump and his control of the game becomes total? What a terrifying and awesome concept.
The talk of Wembanyama’s third season has dominated discussion in the lead-up to the new season and his progress will be equally as popular to talk about as the calendar changes to 2026. But the impact of his potential progression goes beyond the content mill. The Spurs are not quite well-rounded enough to be considered a shoo-in contender in the West, but this is a very talented roster. De’Aaron Fox is an All-Star talent and there’s plenty to explore in his partnership with Wembanyama; the two played only five games together after Fox got traded from the Kings. Stephon Castle is the reigning Rookie of the Year as a fierce defender and overall chaos inducer. Dylan Harper will have some growing pains as the incoming No. 2 pick in the draft, but his skill set appears NBA ready and a good match with Wembanyama. San Antonio has plenty of depth on the wing and signed a legit backup big man in Luke Kornet to round out bench minutes. That makes for a team good enough to hang with all but the heavyweights of the West on paper. If Wembanyama is a top-five player in the league? The Spurs could quickly emerge as a true threat to the Thunder’s throne.
Everybody will be closely monitoring how Wembanyama is coming along because he is exciting and unique; watching a generational prospect begin to reach their potential is one of the most enjoyable experiences in sports. But Wembanyama is capable of forcing his way into the championship picture, whether we’re ready for him or not.
The dawn of the Lakers’ Luka Dončić era
Dončić’s arrival in Los Angeles last season was abrupt and the roster he joined wasn’t terribly well-suited to take advantage of his talents. It was built around a powerful frontcourt of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Dončić obviously doesn’t play the same game as either of those two players. It was something of a miracle the Lakers managed to secure a top-four playoff seed despite clunky roster construction. The team spent this past offseason trying to remedy that and so this season is really the start of the Luka Lakers era. After adding Deandre Ayton to run the rim and catch lobs from Dončić and a few defense-first wing players such as Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia, this is officially a Dončić roster.
It will be quite interesting to see how all the new pieces fit considering the Lakers weren’t choosing from the cream of the crop. Ayton was available because he was outright released by the Trail Blazers, who have finished in the lottery in four straight seasons. LaRavia’s anticipated impact is reflected in his modest $6 million salary. It’s the same with Smart, signed for $5.5 million annually. Paired with James and Austin Reaves, the roster isn’t lacking for talent. But as for the fit around Dončić, it isn’t perfect. Or at least it isn’t compared to the blueprint the Mavericks laid out in terms of an ideal supporting cast for Dončić en route to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Right now, there is one simple answer to such concerns: It won’t matter if Dončić goes nuclear. The “revenge tour” hype train is reaching dangerous speeds entering the new year. The superstar went on a press tour this summer showing off his new approach to conditioning and looked like the best player in the world for much of his EuroBasket run. There is a chance the NBA world will be treated to a version of Dončić never before seen—in excellent shape and driven by an unquenchable desire to stick it to the team that traded him away. Before the wild events of last season, Dončić was a nightly triple-double threat, perennial MVP candidate and a proven playoff monster who made the Finals as a top option. If he gets even 5% better going forward, what unholy nightmare might the Lakers unleash on the rest of the NBA?
Of course, we’ve heard this story before. The particulars of Dončić’s circumstances stand alone in NBA history, but he would not be the first player to champion improved conditioning and a promise to prove people wrong coming off the offseason. It’s easy to do that when the games aren’t being played. But in many cases those promises wind up empty or don’t last very long. There’s a chance conversations about Dončić’s ability to stay on the court take place.
Even if he is new and improved, Dončić alone still probably isn’t enough to propel the Lakers to championship contention. The roster is a bit shaky if injuries strike and James will already miss the opening stretch of the season. But how the first year of the Lakers’ Luka era goes will be, if anything, quite telling.
Cooper Flagg’s arrival
Flagg’s NBA debut has been circled on the calendar for a long time for many basketball fans. Not just in the months since he was drafted No. 1 by the Mavericks, not just since he proved at Duke all the hype was warranted. Flagg has been on the radar for years at this point, and after all the buildup the time has come. He will begin his NBA career on Wednesday against the Spurs. Then he’ll be off to the races and try to live up to the enormous expectations he’s burdened with at 20 years old.
There’s plenty of reason to be excited about Flagg, even if you’re not a Mavericks fan. Chief among them? Flagg has an opportunity to put forth an all-time rookie season.
Unlike most No. 1 picks, Flagg enters the NBA on a roster talented enough to make the playoffs. He’ll play with one Hall of Fame teammate on opening night in Davis and another once Kyrie Irving returns from his torn ACL. Normally that would mean Flagg’s counting stats would be lower than normal given the sheer number of touches designated for star teammates. Plus, the presence of such teammates comes with the weight of expectations—enough weight that a rookie may not get big minutes in important games down the stretch, further hindering their national profile.
But the particulars of Flagg’s situation line up in such a way that we might see him put up big numbers while impacting winning in ways we don’t often see from rookies. At the very least he’ll have a unique opportunity to do both. Without Irving, the Mavericks will be looking for perimeter creation from everybody, and Flagg should get plenty of chances. He’ll be able to play off the attention Davis demands on the block and in the paint. That adds up to plenty of opportunity and plenty of space for Flagg—which, given his prodigious talents, makes for a dangerous recipe for opponents. The Mavs are looking to win right now and, even more so, looking to give their fans a reason to forget about the Dončić debacle. Jason Kidd won’t hesitate to lean on Flagg and missing the postseason would be considered a failure for the vision general manager Nico Harrison sold in the wake of the Dončić trade. If the No. 1 pick proves up to the challenge, Flagg will be pushed to seize control of the game and win every single night.
He likely won’t touch Michael Jordan’s ludicrous rookie season or win Finals MVP in his first season like Magic Johnson. But a comparable campaign to James, who averaged over 20 PPG while leading the Cavaliers to 18 more wins than they had the previous year, seems within reach. It would make for quite the start to the hyped prospect’s career. But even if Flagg goes through the traditional growing pains, his progress should be fun to watch.
Kevin Durant’s final act
With his two-year extension signed on the eve of the regular season, it seems all but final that the Rockets will be Durant’s final team. Admittedly the Suns felt like that, too, but this time it really feels that way. Durant is 37 as this season begins and his stats have undergone a gradual decline over the last four years. He’s been open that he wants Houston to be his final destination. So this is it—one last arc for an all-time great scorer and one of the NBA’s most fascinating personalities.
It should be appreciated, especially with the stakes Durant embraces by joining the Rockets. Houston broke out last season by winning over 50 games thanks to a punch-you-in-the-mouth defense. Offense, on the other hand, was difficult to come by and the Rockets suffered the consequences in losing a first-round series to the Warriors in seven games. Adding one of the game’s top shooters and scorers in Durant is, in theory, a perfect fix to the Rockets’ problems last year.
But will Durant be enough? That’s the question. After losing Fred VanVleet to a torn ACL, the Rockets don’t have many proven shooters on the roster to give Durant space to work. More broadly Houston’s roster is enormous, going a bit against the grain in terms of how the modern game suggests a team should be built. Coach Ime Udoka isn’t just going to be leaning on Durant to bring his nightly production of 26 or so points. He’ll be asking him to make up the engine of a playoff-caliber offense, without much backup.
Durant hasn’t been asked to do that over the course of a full season in a long time. For short spurts, yes. There were plenty of times in Brooklyn he had to take charge for the Nets because James Harden or Irving were hurt or … unavailable. By the end of his Suns tenure, the roster was so bare (and Bradley Beal so ineffectual) Durant was usually one of two capable players on the court at any given time. But the burden he’ll have to shoulder for the Rockets is unlike anything he’s experienced since his Oklahoma City days, when he was a perennial MVP candidate.
Durant isn’t that guy anymore in myriad ways. He will certainly get his shots up every night and shoot close to 50/40/90. But is he still capable of leveraging that gravity to open up the floor for his teammates, night after night after night? Can he do so against elite playoff defenses that will sell all the way out to take away his lanes and ignore the various non-shooting threats alongside him?
We’ve seen Durant do it before. The Rockets are hinging everything on the idea he can do it again. No matter the result, watching Durant try to turn back the clock every night will be fun—and should be appreciated because we don’t know how many more nights like that are left.
What will the Cavaliers do to fix their playoff struggles?
The Cavaliers are on the verge of becoming an all-time wasted potential team given the talent level of their current core. On paper Cleveland should be able to hang with anybody despite the lack of an elite wing that every other championship roster has. Donovan Mitchell remains one of the best pure scorers in the NBA, Darius Garland’s jitterbug play style thrives in the open floor of the modern game and Evan Mobley just won his first Defensive Player of the Year award by covering all the defensive issues his star teammates present. In three seasons together, the trio has averaged 54 regular-season wins per season; they won 64 last year.
Yet it’s all amounted to only two playoff series wins and several spectacular flameouts.
In 2023 the Cavs were upset by the Knicks, who suffocated Cleveland’s spacing. In 2024 they ran into a juggernaut Celtics team and the injury bug at the same time, with Mitchell missing two games of the series. Last season resulted in a similar fate; with just about every important Cavaliers player banged up, there was nothing they could do against a team of destiny like the Pacers.
While injuries are the primary factor tying all the playoff losses together, the results are still wanting. The roster is expensive with the team’s three stars all making at least $39 million next season. Postseason victories are expected at that price point no matter the context.
This is the season to prove this core works for Cleveland. Big changes are coming otherwise. And boy, have the stars aligned for them to make it work.
Thanks to injuries and roster turnover the East is as weak as it’ll ever be; on paper the Cavs’ only true rival for the conference throne is the Knicks. The Cavaliers should have the talent advantage every night otherwise against conference foes. They proved last season they can win in the regular season. But how they approach this campaign, with the ghost of their past playoff failures lingering, will be very interesting.
Coach Kenny Atkinson should do plenty of experimenting with lineup constructions and ways to work around the occasionally cramped spacing his best five-man options present. Mobley’s game should continue to expand offensively and Mitchell will have to round out his game even further despite already being an All-NBA talent because his explosive scoring clearly isn’t enough. Above all, what lengths will Cleveland go to to keep everyone healthy? Is it a season-long load management campaign? Will they risk the ire of the league office to do so? Will it even work?
All good questions, and all will determine how the season plays out for the Cavaliers—and therefore the rest of the conference.
Are the Magic ready to step up?
No team is more obviously eager to take advantage of the sudden power vacuum in the East quite like the Magic. Orlando, sensing an opportunity after Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard’s Achilles injuries, dumped four first-round picks to acquire Desmond Bane—a good but not great player who is a perfect match for the current roster. The Magic are clearly hoping Bane is the final piece to building a contender around Paolo Banchero and this iteration of the roster.
Bane is a stellar catch-and-shoot threat who will be defended as such. Banchero and Franz Wagner, absolutely massive playmakers each, have never played with a shooter as talented as Bane in their careers. They should have several more feet of space to work with on slashing drives to the basket as long as Bane is just standing beyond the three-point line, much less running an action or any of the other creative methods coach Jamahl Mosley can cook up to utilize his gravity.
It’s an exciting proposition to consider when looking at the remarkable production Banchero and Wagner have enjoyed as pretty young players without that gravity. Especially so in regard to Banchero. The former No. 1 pick could be a sleeper MVP candidate. He averaged 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists last season despite missing nearly half the year with a shoulder injury and a roster not really designed to take advantage of his talents. With a leap in his own game Banchero is set up for a monstrous campaign. Imagine what might happen if Wagner fixes his jump shot?
The Magic have quietly been simmering as a possible contender once Banchero made it clear in the 2024 playoffs that he’s a force of nature as a scorer. This is their first chance to find out just how far his talents can take the team. Who knows what the conference landscape will look like one year from now? That is obviously the question Orlando’s front office asked entering the season, and why they pushed all their chips into the middle of the table.
The road to a deep playoff run has been bulldozed. It’s on the Magic to take advantage.
The 76ers’ health, again
Few teams enter the 2025–26 season with a more extreme range of outcomes than the 76ers. And as was the case last season, everything rests on whether they can remain healthy.
Let’s lay it out plainly. If Joel Embiid’s knees are fully healed. If Paul George can stay healthy in his age-35 season. If Tyrese Maxey can enjoy a mostly healthy season after missing 30 games last season. If Jared McCain comes back ready to roll from the injury that has already knocked him out to start the season. If rookie VJ Edgecombe can avoid falling victim to the curse that clearly gripped the franchise last year. If all that comes to be, then Philadelphia is a serious contender. How could they not be?
Embiid, even if he can only make it back to something like 80% of his MVP form after his knee injuries, is unstoppable and there aren’t many centers in the East capable of defending him for a full game. George is an elite shooter and secondary playmaker. Maxey is already one of the conference’s better backcourt players and seems poised to continue on that trajectory. That’s a rock-solid core. Then you add in McCain, Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Kelly Oubre Jr. around the edges and the Sixers have the makings of a well-rounded, versatile team that competes on both ends.
But obviously if. If, if, if. We’ve been playing that game with Embiid for a while and last year was the encapsulation of why there are so many doubts surrounding the MVP big man. It’s not his fault he got hurt, but the Sixers prefer to keep his status shrouded in mystery and therefore make it impossible to rely on his availability.
Thus, the team might have some existential questions to grapple with if the injury bug strikes again. Does Embiid have anything left to give if his knees act up again this season? What about George and the many miles on his legs? How can Philly pivot if the worst-case scenario comes to fruition? The Sixers can’t do much midseason but another campaign sidetracked by injury seems fated to result in a massive teardown next summer.
Philadelphia could jostle for playoff positioning with some injury luck. The Sixers could even be favorites (imagine that!) to come out of the East if things break right. They could also suffer through another utterly disastrous season that precipitates Daryl Morey’s exodus from the City of Brotherly Love and the official end of the Process Era, once and for all. Which way the season swings rides largely on whether the roster’s biggest names can enjoy something resembling a clean bill of health from October on.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Victor Wembanyama’s Enormous Expectations Lead Seven Storylines for 2025–26 NBA Season.