Week 1 Risers and Fallers | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8
Quarterbacks make the NFL go ’round. They get the credit in good times and the blame in bad times. The best ones often help mask, if not elevate, other flaws on their team.
If only franchise-caliber passers were easy to find.
Drafting quarterbacks is an inexact science, one that can make or break the tenures of coaching staffs and front offices. There’s often a baseline of arm talent, athleticism and intangible assets required to play the position at the highest level. Still, there’s a multitude of other factors—some within the quarterback’s control and many others out of their hands—that determine success.
Situation matters. The right coach, system and supporting cast are critical. But so does natural talent.
After eight weeks of film, the image around quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL draft has grown clearer. Some are legitimate first-round picks. Others who once held the title have fallen drastically. A few others are somewhere in the middle and will spend the final month of the season finding their spot.
There’s room for movement in the quarterback hierarchy—the top three have fluctuated in the past two weeks alone—but here’s Sports Illustrated’s categorical rankings as the season nears the home stretch.
QB1 contenders
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Mendoza has been the most consistently impressive quarterback in the class, blending arm strength, athleticism and accuracy while throwing 21 touchdowns to just two interceptions this season. The 6' 5", 225-pounder’s ball placement lends itself to explosive run-after-catch potential, and he’s a strong anticipatory passer who can throw to spots, not just to players. The most underrated aspect of his game is his athleticism—he can extend plays, shift pockets and pick up yards when the opportunity presents itself. Mendoza is comfortable standing in the pocket when his line gives him time, and he’s an intelligent player with quick processing skills and quality field vision. He’s made a few bad decisions in key moments under duress on the road, but he’s rebounded against Iowa and Oregon to lead game-winning drives. He’s intelligent, can work through reads, and has the arm to access any part of the field.
Ty Simpson, Alabama
Simpson had a difficult starting debut against Florida State, but he’s been terrific ever since. The 6' 2" 208-pound Simpson is smart and plays with a level of composure uncommon in relatively inexperienced quarterbacks. His arm strength is underrated—he threw a deep ball against Tennessee that traveled over 60 yards in the air, and he can drive passes into tight windows—and he’s athletic enough to break contain and extend plays. Simpson won’t make many designed runs, but he can pick up yards on scrambles. He has an over-the-top release, and his ball placement is excellent—he creates completions where opportunities really shouldn’t exist, simply because he throws guys open with precise placement. Simpson will pick defenses apart if there’s no pressure, he can throw from a clear platform, and he never appears rushed or rattled. Simpson operates at a high level with his timing and pre- and post-snap processing, and his accuracy allows him to attack tight windows confidently. Simpson has led Alabama to big road wins over Georgia and Missouri, and his poise in big moments and loud environments is impressive.
Dante Moore, Oregon
At 6' 3", 206 pounds, Moore has a fluid, repeatable delivery, proven game poise and the ability to extend plays. He’s smooth and accurate inside structure, and he’s comfortable progressing through reads in a safe pocket. When the pocket muddies or pressure comes, Moore’s accuracy becomes sporadic, and his efficiency dwindles. Moore is particularly impressive when he breaks the pocket, generating considerable velocity on the move, and his ball placement is consistently precise. Moore has experience working under center, and while he too often locks onto his initial target, he’s shown he can work through progressions. Only a redshirt sophomore, Moore is still young, but he handled Penn State’s whiteout environment with veteran poise, and he has a natural ease to his game that’s uncommon.
Stock in flux
John Mateer, Oklahoma
Mateer entered the QB1 discussion after a strong first month to begin the season before suffering a fracture in his throwing hand in a Week 4 win over Auburn. He missed only one game, but he’s been less explosive in his two games since returning—he threw three interceptions in Week 7 against Texas and had a season-low 150 passing yards at South Carolina in Week 8. Struggles aside, Mateer has impressed with his arm talent, accuracy, moxie and playmaking inside and outside structure. He can extend plays and, when at his best, hit explosives downfield. Mateer has a gunslinger mentality, with unwavering faith in his arm, and he’s unafraid to challenge tight windows. He has a strong, though not elite, arm and throws with adequate touch, though his accuracy is sporadic at times. Mateer is quite athletic—he’s shifty and has good vision as a runner, leading to success on scrambles and quarterback draws. Mateer, a redshirt junior, will have a decision to make at the end of the year, but he’s placed himself among the top five quarterbacks in the class.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
It’s challenging to properly evaluate Sellers because he spends so much time running for his life—he’s been pressured on 47.9% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, ranking second among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. Sellers has the best raw tools of any quarterback in the class, and he’s showcased his speed, elusiveness and out-of-structure playmaking this season out of necessity. He has a sturdy 6' 3", 240-pound frame with a rocket arm, but he’s struggled finding consistent success within structure this season, eclipsing 210 passing yards only once and scoring only six touchdowns—five passing, one rushing—in six-and-a-half games. Sellers has developed some bad habits behind South Carolina’s offensive line, which has forced him to be hesitant at times in the pocket and sped up his processing and internal clock. Only a redshirt sophomore, Sellers would benefit from another year in school, but his flashes of play extension and out-of-structure brilliance this season have been tantalizing.
Bottom line: Mateer and Sellers have delivered stretches of play worthy of being first-round choices, but they’ve been hot and cold to the extent where early Day 2—or a return to school—remain viable options. How both passers finish the season will ultimately dictate their fate for the 2026 draft.
What happened here?
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Sports Illustrated’s No. 1 quarterback prospect entering the season, Nussmeier endured a difficult first half of the season, prompting questions about his health. Whether or not he’s injured, Nussmeier’s game has lacked the same explosiveness it had in 2024. He’s still flashed the traits that made him a highly-touted summer prospect: He anticipates throws, is willing and able to attack narrow windows, has quality ball placement and boasts a strong and flexible arm. But Nussmeier hasn’t consistently put it all together. He threw for over 4,000 yards in 2024 and is currently on pace to finish with just over 2,800 yards in the regular season this year. Nussmeier hasn’t fallen dramatically, as he still looks like a second-round pick, but he hasn’t lived up to the summer hype.
Drew Allar, Penn State
Allar started 2025 behind Nussmeier on Sports Illustrated’s big board due to his 6' 5", 235-pound frame, strong arm and extensive experience—he started 35 games at Penn State. But Allar’s game primarily looked the same as it did in '24, and if anything, his accuracy and ball placement—which was already sporadic—regressed. He needed to find more consistency and deliver a signature moment in a big game, but failed to do both. Toss in the broken left ankle he sustained Oct. 11 against Northwestern, and Allar’s stock is in an undesirable position. Depending on the length of his recovery time and his participation in the predraft process, he may still land on Day 2. However, he’ll be a long way from the potential top-10 pick status he reached over the summer.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Klubnik, the No. 3 quarterback on Sports Illustrated’s summer big board, had all the ingredients to build on a promising 2024 season but hasn’t taken the next step. He has solid, albeit unspectacular, physical tools. His arm is strong enough to make most throws, and he’s athletic enough to extend plays and make defenders miss in tight quarters, but neither grade as an elite trait. Klubnik’s lack of anticipation has been part of his struggles this season—the ball comes out late, and he’s not throwing receivers open. He’s also struggled with ball placement under duress. At his best, Klubnik is a quality distributor with easy mechanics and three-level accuracy, and he looked better in Clemson’s wins in Weeks 6 and 7. But midway through the season, Klubnik appears closer to a late Day 3 pick than an early-round choice.
Trending Day 2
Carson Beck, Miami
Before his four-interception performance in Miami’s Week 8 loss to Louisville, Beck looked much more like the player who entered the 2024 season as a potential first-round pick. He’s a competitor with a strong arm and quality accuracy within structure, and his processing appears quicker. The 6' 4", 220-pound Beck also showed improved pocket management, understanding where to slide to find clearer throwing windows. But against Louisville, Beck’s past decision-making and pocket poise flaws reared their ugly head. He has a good collection of tools, but he seems destined for Day 2.
Taylen Green, Arkansas
Green has an intriguing collection of tools and has elevated his game since 2024. Big-armed and physically impressive at 6' 4" and 235 pounds, Green looks more comfortable operating within structure and making throws from the pocket. He’s a tremendous athlete, and he’s the draft’s most mobile quarterback—he has five rushing scores and is averaging 84.1 yards per game on the ground. Green’s accuracy has faltered after an efficient start, as he’s completing less than 60% of his passes in three of the past four games, but he’s an explosive passer and runner. He has tools worth betting on, but his ball placement issues limit him to late Day 2 or the early part of Day 3.
Likely Day 3
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
A tremendous story after transferring from Ferris State and starting at Ole Miss only due to starter Austin Simmons’s Week 2 injury, Chambliss has impressed for the Rebels. The 6' 0", 200-pounder has a strong, twitchy arm, and he’s an explosive athlete capable of making defenders miss in tight quarters. He’s fast and quick enough to warrant designed runs—he’s scored five rushing touchdowns and is averaging 60.4 rushing yards across five starts. Chambliss can work through multiple reads, and he’s willing to attack tight windows if defenders’ leverage is off. His ball placement is sporadic, and he struggled in a pressure-packed fourth quarter against Georgia, but he’s at least put his name on NFL radars over the past month.
Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
The nation’s leading passer with 2,376 yards in seven games, the 6' 4", 220-pound Robertson has a strong arm and is unafraid to use it. Robinson routinely hits explosive plays, and he can access any window. He’s made strides with his eye manipulation and ball placement. A gunslinger who’s second in the FBS with 300 pass attempts, Robertson’s decision-making falters at times, and he’s tossed seven interceptions this season. Robertson hasn’t used his legs much this season, but he had 230 yards and four touchdowns in 2024, and his athleticism remains an impressive trait. Robertson’s productivity, size, arm strength and pocket mobility make him a viable Day 3 pick.
Better bets for 2027
Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
Leavitt has one of college football’s best arms, and he pairs it with moxie, toughness and the athleticism to extend plays. He’s played well over the past month, but barring a strong close to this season, the redshirt sophomore is better suited to return to school. Leavitt has first-round tools, but his collective body of work this season has him in the late Day 2 discussion.
Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
Sorsby, one of Sports Illustrated’s Week 8 risers, has the arm talent and ball placement of a future draft pick. The redshirt junior has thrown 18 touchdowns and only one interception this season, and he may choose to ride the wave into a Day 2 or Day 3 spot next April. But with another year of high-level production, it’s fair to think the 6' 3", 235-pounder can play his way into the first round.
Josh Hoover, TCU
Hoover has been among college football’s most productive passers, as he’s tied for the FBS lead with 21 touchdown passes and ranks fifth with 2,124 passing yards. At 6' 2" and 200 pounds, Hoover has an explosive arm, clicks through reads and can layer passes into zones. Hoover is in a similar position to Sorsby: likely a Day 3 pick if he enters this year’s draft with a chance to rise in 2027.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2026 NFL Draft QB Tiers: How the Top 15 Stacks Up.