How Notre Dame vs. USC Impacts Their College Football Playoff Chances

The annual rivalry game between Notre Dame and USC takes on added significance this season. As things stand right now, the Fighting Irish and Trojans are not slated to play in 2026, with Sports Illustrated's Pat Forde reporting that USC has offered a short-term extension to the series (in Los Angeles) while Notre Dame wants to ink a long-term deal. The 2020 COVID-19-impacted season aside, next year would mark the first time that the two sides haven't met on the gridiron since World War II. Prior to 1943, they had played every season since the series began in 1926.

Worries about the future of one of college football's greatest rivalries provide a backdrop to a game that has plenty of on-field intrigue as well. Notre Dame has rebounded from its 0–2 start against two of college football's best teams, and has looked like an absolute buzzsaw in the month since their one-point loss to Texas A&M. USC's season looked like it was heading in the disappointing direction that so many recent Trojans campaigns have when they lost by two at Illinois... and they turned around to dominate Michigan in all facets last week.

Notre Dame almost certainly needs a win to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive. USC's probably aren't dead with a loss, but they're on life support.

The biggest Notre Dame–USC game in some time is upon us this Saturday. Let's take a look at how a win for each team impacts the CFP race.

How Notre Dame and USC match up

Notre Dame Stadium has been a house of horrors for USC since the end of Pete Carroll's dynastic run with the Trojans. Carroll finished 8–1 against Notre Dame, winning his final eight games in the rivalry before leaving for the NFL. His successor Lane Kiffin won the 2011 matchup in South Bend, marking the last time USC won on the road in the rivalry series.

Not only will Lincoln Riley look to exercise those demons, but also the Trojans will have to contend with the mid-October Indiana elements as well. After a fairly warm afternoon, the Accuweather forecast has temperatures dropping to the mid-50s for the 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, with a significant chance of rain, possible thunderstorms and wind gusts above 35 mph. If that comes to pass, it likely favors the Fighting Irish at home.

Notre Dame has one of the nation's best running back tandems in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who've combined for 952 yards and 15 touchdowns so far this season. USC's defense has improved during the year and after a rough showing vs. Illinois, held Michigan's solid backfield to just 109 yards and 3.5 yards per carry a week ago. They'll need a repeat performance to keep Notre Dame from grinding the game away.

While the conditions don't call for a shootout, this should quietly be one of the better quarterback matchups of the season on paper. Fighting Irish freshman C.J. Carr has quickly developed into one of the nation's most efficient passers, with 1,622 yards (10.3 per attempt), 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions after being thrown into the fire early in the year. His Trojans counterpart Jayden Maiava has 1,852 yards, 13 touchdowns and two picks, and is second in the nation in passer rating among players with at least 100 attempts. He may need to let it rip through the wind and the rain, as USC's backfield has been decimated by injury, with Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders both out. Walk-on King Miller stepped up in a huge way against Michigan, rushing for 158 yards and a touchdown, but Riley has to wish he had more depth available against a rock solid Notre Dame defense.

If Notre Dame wins...

The Fighting Irish would live to see another week, and add the biggest win available to their résumé. Strength of schedule isn't typically an issue for Notre Dame, but this year's slate was extremely front-loaded, and they suffered a pair of losses to Miami and Texas A&M—two teams now ranked in the top four of the AP Top 25—by a total of four points. Those losses probably won't weigh against the Fighting Irish too heavily, especially as the team continues to round into form, but there are very few quality wins left.

As of the Week 8 poll, USC is the only other ranked team on the schedule. Navy is 6–0 and could be a decent win down the stretch, but ND's remaining ACC games—Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford—leave plenty to be desired. The group has a collective record of 10–14, and of that group, only Pitt is over .500. Notre Dame also doesn't have the possibility of reaching a conference championship game and securing an automatic bid.

Notre Dame needs to run the table and likely get some help to make the CFP at 10–2. Landing a big win over USC is the single most impactful that Marcus Freeman's team can do to boost its playoff chances. ESPN's Football Power Index gives Notre Dame a 24% chance to reach the playoff, the 19th-best odds in the country.

Notre Dame's 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 8 AP Top 25.

If USC wins...

The Trojans have more ground to make up after losing to Illinois a few weeks ago, but last week's dominant win vs. Michigan was an impressive display for Lincoln Riley's team on both sides of the ball. USC's win was a bit overshadowed by other results in the Big Ten, namely Indiana's statement win at Oregon, but it keeps the Trojans in the mix for both a Big Ten championship slot and an at-large berth.

The former will be difficult to come by, even if USC runs the table. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Indiana will be heavy favorites in every game from here on out, and do not meet each other in the regular season. The Trojans also do not have the opportunity to knock the Buckeyes or Hoosiers out of those conference championship spots, so they'll be relying on a seismic upset down the stretch.

Even so, USC is more opportunities to climb the ladder than Notre Dame, starting with Saturday's game. The Trojans follow it up with a bye, and then head to another Top 25 program—Nebraska—and finish the year with games against potentially plucky Iowa and UCLA teams bracketing a showdown with West Coast rival Oregon, another major playoff contender. Run the table and USC would almost certainly make the field at 11–1 as an at-large team. Doing so at 10–2 is less likely, but that record would mean the Trojans knocked off either Notre Dame or Oregon on the road, both of which would be tremendous wins. FPI current gives USC a 30.4% chance to make the playoff, 14th best odds overall and fourth in the Big Ten.

USC's 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 8 AP Top 25.

Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Notre Dame, USC

Both Notre Dame and USC are on the outside looking in of the current College Football Playoff picture. Entering Week 8, SI's Pat Forde has both the Fighting Irish and Trojans listed among his teams "also considered" for the 12-team field. Bryan Fischer, meanwhile, has Notre Dame projected as the No. 11 seed in the CFP, and set for a rematch of last year's quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. He is also higher on USC than the AP and Coaches Polls, with the Trojans ranked No. 15 in his current Top 25.