NBA Western Conference Preview: Champion Thunder Have Secret Weapon

Each season, Sports Illustrated asks a handful of anonymous scouts to rate the top NBA teams in each conference for an unfiltered prediction of what to expect. Here’s how we see the Western Conference teams finishing in the 2025–26 season and a scout’s take on those projected to make the postseason.

1. Thunder

Chet Holmgren gives the champion Thunder a chance to really improve. I think he’s got another step he can take and if he does, that’s going to be a big problem. Right now he’s an O.K. shooter and he can get some stuff done with the ball, but he’s not great at it. With some strength he can take the smaller guys on him and just beat ’em up.

2. Nuggets

The Nuggets made some smart moves this offseason. Bruce Brown was good for them in 2023, and he’s the kind of player who plays better on good teams. For Denver, it’s going to come down to who can be their third scorer in the playoffs. Michael Porter Jr. is a bit of a wack job but he could get a bucket. Can Cam Johnson? To me he’s a fifth starter, fourth starter, first-guy-off-the-bench kind of guy.

3. Rockets

Kevin Durant gives the Rockets a real scorer for the postseason. But they’re an overinflated team. Dillon Brooks was really good for them and without him, they lose a little bit of their identity. Maybe Tari Eason can be that kind of guy. I think they’re going to be a top four or five team but it seems like a little bit of a stretch to say, “Oh my God, they’re going to be the team because they got Durant.”

4. Lakers

Luka Doncic is going to have a chip on his shoulder all season for the Lakers. LeBron James is still good enough to be a solid No. 2, but I wonder how motivated he is after that weird offseason of trade rumors. I like the addition of Deandre Ayton, especially given they had no options and they were able to come up with him.

5. Warriors

Golden State can do what they did in the second half of last season for stretches, but I don’t think they can sustain it for a full year. With their age, guys will miss time. Jimmy Butler on his best behavior fits with anybody. It’s once he starts changing his behavior that doesn’t fit with anybody.

6. Timberwolves

Minnesota is a little bit worse than last season because Mike Conley’s a year older and they lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Terrence Shannon Jr. could be Alexander-Walker in a year or two, but he’s not now. Rudy Gobert takes a step back every year. Julius Randle is a wild card. He’ll have to be an All-Star for them to finish higher than they did last season.

7. Mavericks

Dallas will be slow offensively. That’s going to be a problem until Kyrie Irving comes back. Cooper Flagg is going to be really good in the way that Kevin Garnett was really good. His MVP season will be 24 and 12 with six assists. Right now he’s 18 and physically weak and not really good at dribbling with his left hand or shooting. So it’s going to take him a minute, but once he gets it, he’s going to be really good.

8. Clippers

The Clippers are the highest variance team going into this year. If you told me that they finished below .500, I’d be like, Yeah, I could see it—every old guy got hurt and they started to hate each other. And if you told me that they were really good I’d be like, Yeah, they got a bunch of veteran guys who know how to play. They just have so much going on. James Harden is his own entity. You have Kawhi Leonard’s off-the-court problem plus his normal problems. They added Chris Paul to the mix. And you bring in Bradley Beal, who sulked all of last season in Phoenix.

9. Spurs

I still think the Spurs are a year or two away. The media is higher on the rate of Victor Wembanyama’s progression than the league is. De’Aaron Fox should help accelerate the process. I guess he’s a good fit with them, but they already have Stephon Castle and now Dylan Harper. If Harper’s going to be their guy, maybe Fox slows that process down a little bit, too.

10. Grizzlies

Ja Morant doesn’t have the juice that he once had. Some of that’s probably physical, some of it’s probably mental. Before, the way he conducted himself galvanized the Grizzlies. He was one of those guys that everybody wants to play for and play with. And I didn’t see that when he came back last year.