How Miami's Loss to Louisville Impacts Hurricanes' ACC Championship, CFP Chances

Miami entered its Week 8 game, a Friday night showdown with Louisville, locked in as one of the top teams in the country. It left it with its quarterback plummeting down Heisman odds lists, and with a serious dent to its postseason aspirations after a 24–21 loss.

The Cardinals jumped out to a 14–0 lead over the Hurricanes, with Miller Moss rushing for one touchdown and throwing for another. Miami would cut the lead to 14–10 by halftime. After trading field goals in the third quarter, Louisville found the end zone to open fourth quarter scoring. The Cardinals looked like they might put the game away after picking off Carson Beck for a third time on the ensuin possession, but Isaac Brown fumbled the ball away on the next play, setting up a 12-yard touchdown run for Miami receiver Malachi Toney, cutting Louisville's lead to 24–21.

After forcing a punt, Miami got the ball with nearly four minutes left, plenty of time to force overtime or win the game with a touchdown. Miami drove down to the Louisville 31, but Beck was picked off for a fourth time to seal the game.

Lockdown mode activated 😤

The Louisville defense dominated at No. 2️⃣ Miami, picking off Carson Beck four times — including the game-clinching interception in the final minute!@LouisvilleFB | @GoCards | #GoCards | @DrPepper pic.twitter.com/h6yeivv4zg
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 18, 2025

How does Miami's loss impact their chances to play for the ACC championship?

One loss doesn't necessarily eliminate a team from conference championship contention. However, with an unweidly, divisionless 17-team ACC, there is always the threat that a program won't have the chance to beat the teams ahead of them head-to-head and have to rely on tiebreakers.

That is the issue for Miami after its loss to Louisville.

Entering Saturday afternoon, four ACC teams are still undefeated in conference play: Duke, Georgia Tech, SMU and Virginia. Of that group, Miami only plays the Mustangs, traveling to Dallas for that showdown on Nov. 1. That cluster will sort itself out to some extent; Georgia Tech and Duke are tied 10–10 in the fourth quarter as of publication, while Virginia travels to Duke on Nov. 15.

Georgia Tech and Virginia don't face each other and both have manageable schedules down the stretch. If the Yellow Jackets beat Duke, they face a banged up Syracuse team, disappointing NC State and Boston College teams and a decent Pitt squad to finish ACC play. Virginia has a nonconference game with Washington State on Saturday, which won't impact this ACC race, before finishing with trips to UNC and Cal, home against Wake Forest, a trip to Duke and a home game against Virginia Tech. Cal, Wake and Duke are all solid teams, and Virginia Tech will be motivated to end a rough season on a high note against a rival, but these are all winnable games for the Hoos.

It should be noted that while Virginia lost to NC State earlier in the season, that was scheduled outside of ACC play and therefore doesn't impact the conference race.

Miami's loss to Louisville also hands the Cardinals, who are 2–1 in conference play, a tiebreaker over the Canes. Cal and Pitt are also one-loss ACC teams; Miami doesn't play the Golden Bears but will take on the Panthers on the road to finish the season on Nov. 29.

ACC standings ahead of Saturday's Week 8 games

Is Miami still alive for the College Football Playoff after losing to Louisville?

Strangely, the Hurricanes may have a better chance to making the 12-team CFP field than it does of reaching the ACC championship as of today.

Last year, Miami fell just outside of the 12-team field after finishing the regular season 10–2, losing out on a chance to play in the conference title game by losing at Syracuse in the final game of the regular season. Clemson snuck in via tiebreaker and won the title game over SMU, making the playoff via autobid as a three-loss team. SMU fell to 11–2 with the tight loss to the Tigers, and made the field as the final at-large. Miami was the second team left on the outside looking in, behind 9–3 Alabama and ahead of Ole MIss and South Carolina.

This Miami team still has a prime opportunity to go 11–1, and to compile a better résumé overall. The U beat Notre Dame to open the season, a win that looks better by the day. They also blew out another potential CFP team, South Florida, and have a dominant win over Florida. The upcoming schedule doesn't feature a ton of prominent games, but road wins at SMU and Pitt would look good. Run the table and go 11–1, even without an ACC championship game appearance, and it would be difficult to leave Miami out. The Canes could conceivably make it at 10–2, but the margin of error there is much tighter, especially with a deep SEC threatening to take up a large chunk of at-large bids.

In his live CFP bracket, SI's Bryan Fischer still has the Canes in the mix as the No. 5 seed set for a potential rematch with USF in the first round. He also has Georgia Tech in his current field.

ESPN's Football Power Index gives Miami just a 21.4% chance of winning the ACC, below both Virginia and Duke (but ahead of Georgia Tech) ahead of Saturday's games. However, their chances of reach the CFP are marked at 48.6%, the ninth-highest percentage in the sport and by far the highest in the ACC.